Regarding the above, consider the concept of a wartime economy and infrastructure stimulus.
So the S&P hits 5000.
Single-handedly, the biggest position I have taken in a duration of 2 years.
During times when it was extremely unpopular.
As you may or may not know, I'm neutral and I'm pinning the index for this week. Not because I'm really interested in intraday trades, but as I previously mentioned.
Hitting the bullseye is very much the single greatest achievement in the art of speculation.
When I think of markets, I strive to identify the essence of their necessity for functioning as the real edge.
What am I saying?
You must seek to find the anomaly in the normality.
If you can find the anomaly in the normality you are ‘set for life’.
A real edge in the market should work in all time frames and durations.
If the edge is time-specific, such as using an indicator that only works with a certain time frame, it should be seen as curve-fitting.
If the edge is fad-specific, that is also an indication of no edge. I often see these grafters with no edge, engaging in the latest fads like NFTs or crypto, when they didn't even have an edge on whatever fad they were focused on before.
This is why an astute value investor can buy a under valued asset at any given moment because one believes his edge to reflect over a longer duration.
For example, with all our data on the amount of water consumption, steps or sleep required to be considered ‘good’, why is it that on both an aggregate level and an individual level, the data will present our inability to meet the suggested daily requirements?
If we were to tally water, steps, or sleep beyond the daily time frame, such as quarterly or annually, these characteristics still exist.
We could call this reflective of human nature, which is the longest durable edge in markets and can always be seen with a simple examination of the data in both long and short time durations.
Consider the fact that there is an influx of volume at the open, with it tapering off in the afternoon and picking up near the close. This phenomenon mirrors our biophysical energy levels throughout a day.
Over longer periods of time, volume expansion and contraction can be observed in seasonality, such as the decrease in activity during summer in the Hamptons.
FYI, I’m looking for clever analyst to work on some projects with.
Long the Holy Land