MAYDAY! SELL ALL COMMODITIES - LONG EQUITIES NOW
The Art and Timing of War like a Rothschild
THE SHADOW OF WAR HAS EMERGED IN THE EAST AND THIS IS NOW A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY TO CAPTURE THE PRIZES OF WAR.
YOU ARE NOW NATHAN ROTHSCHILD, THE DRIVING FORCE IN SPECULATING IN THE NAPOLEONIC WARS AND THE WAR OF 1812.
THE ROTHSCHILDS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN PRAGMATICALLY LOOKING AT GEOPOLITICS AND WAR.
THIS IS THE SUMMARY OF CURRENT EVENTS:
Russia claims it feels threaten by NATO surrounding them. Although, NATO was never going to engage in a hot war with Russia.
NATO uses other methods to subvert Russia, using proximity to its advantage.
Russia also does the same to the West.
Russia has used the above as the excuse to escalate and invade Ukraine, Crimea and Georgia. In an effort to reclaim all states near Russia - not part of NATO.
NATO will not interfere physically in the Ukraine as Putin is now all in. If NATO gets involved it will escalate to ‘mutually assured destruction’ - including No Fly Zones. Despite efforts to gaslight immorality or human rights narratives to get the Western military industrial complex involved.
Putin will direct resources to strike the West. Allocating resources to seek vengeance through cyberattacks. The liberal media and the deep state are pushing this narrative to protect the composition of the Democrat National Committee (DNC) stronghold. This will culminate with disinformation and tampering in the U.S. general mid term elections on Nov 8th 2022.
As a result, Russia is seeking a favorable conclusion with its efforts in the Ukraine, uniting old Soviet allies and disrupting the West.
The reader must become the embodiment of the Rothschilds.
The reader must see the rational.
This rational deduction will lead to many opportunities in global markets - Prizes of War.
We are now heading into the 9th week of the war in Ukraine and it has provided us some data points to work out critical dates of this war - like the Rothschilds.
The reason why the timing is so key to the reader, is to work out a sequence of events to hold longs and observe the excess raise of global commodity prices. Leading to one of the greatest shorts in history.
This premise will also lead to a bullish equities stance as risk, as measured by volatility exhausted out post MOONFALL! (another great short).
In order to watch the opportunity unfold we need to focus on the sequence of events:
SECTION 1 - THE PATH OF WAR IS RISKY BUSINESS
SECTION 2 - PUSHING AND PULLING FOR RESOLUTION (Orthodox Easter April 24th - May 9th 2022)
SECTION 3 - RETRIBUTION & VICTORY (May 9th 2022)
SECTION 4 - THE FINAL ACT - INTO 2023
SECTION 5 - COLLECTING THE PRIZES OF WAR
THE SHORT TERM PICTURE: April 24 - May 9th 2022
Radius expansion of the Russian military points to further conquest by Orthodox Easter (April 24th)
Continuous negations and cease fire talks add more leverage to the Russian ‘victory’ narrative (on going)
Seasonality is melting the solid Ukrainian terrain (since Spring - March 21st) Easter to Victory Day in Moscow is +15 days. 15 days to logistically move some ‘War Heros’ for parades.
Oil & Gas tends to trend downward annually in May
Oil & Gas sales will begin to dwindle down going into May (Military expenditure spill over)
Russian oil and gas are payable in rubles since April 1st 2022. Contract payments from uncooperative EU will be due a month later.
PREVIEWING THE PRIZES
Long Commodities, latest up-to Victory Day, May 9th 2022
On May 9th long S&P 500 Index (invert ‘Sell in May & Go Away’)
On May 9th long oversold (-50% from recent highs) tech stocks.
Begin Shorting Commodity Futures post Orthodox Easter, April 24th 2022 (June Contract)
Long Canadian Dollar (Combating Inflation) - Short Japanese Yen (Importing Energy with Deflation) FY22
Long Crowdstrike $CRWD up-to the Democratically Controlled Midterm Elections, Nov 8 2022
In order to understand the rise and eventual fall of commodities (also implies a ‘risk off’ element to global equities) - we assess Russia’s unfortunate conquest of Ukraine as the primary catalyst.
Which is to say that markets will need to understand ‘The Path of War’ to fully deactivate global political uncertainty and to switch back to ‘risk on’.
A ‘risk on’ environment can be seen with the pre Moonfall thesis. Which consists of slightly suppressed commodity prices and buoyant global equity prices - pre Nov 2021.
When, one observes the price action of March 10-14 2022. We got a glimpse of what the commodity crash will look like with elevated equity prices. We also saw how commodities elevated up after the short-term correction.
The switching between risk off and risk on will continue to happen until Orthodox Easter on April 24th as the war begins to unwind.
This is the kind of market we can envision post war - the new normal (a lot of new normals as of late).
Let’s go on to examine the path of war.
SECTION 1 : THE PATH OF WAR IS RISKY BUSINESS
It is through logistics that we can extrapolate the timing of Russian expansion into Ukraine. Movement of Russian Brigades need a lot of Material-Technical support as seen below:
Russian forces use a logistical methodology for gaining ground and prioritizing coordination. That’s why we have seen fuel less tanks in nonstrategic areas, as it’s likely other cargo, such as ammunition was prioritized. The Western approach is to let strategy lead logistics, allowing the military to adapt to conditions on the ground.
Overall, we roughly measure the expansion of material and technical support brigades in relation to the movement of armed conflict relative to the mile radius expansion of the Russian invasion. Each major strategic logistical gain such as railways, resource support, waterways and cities, helps support and accelerate the Russian force.
Time for Russian forces to gain ground with full support is the factor that will determine how long the conflict is prolonged, as territory of the warzone is systematically occupied in pace with the supply of logistics feeding the expansion.
SECTION 2 : PUSHING AND PULLING FOR RESOLUTION
Russia is using a push led logistical expansion. The military has the ability to sustain itself within 45 mile radius from supply dumps and have a limit of up-to 90 miles for new ‘push’ advances. This is based on trucks making two to three trips daily to replace supplies in the radius.
The pace of this military operation allows us to monitor how long the bull market in commodities can have excess momentum. (Section 1: Radius & Logistics Map) . It is fair to assume that more developments will be coming around Easter time; before spring.
Russia used the firm frozen ground in winter to build up the military on the border and make the initial attack while winter conditions allowed for smooth vehicle progress.
They will be trying to cover as much ground as possible, before the infamous ‘rasputitsa’ spring thaw turns many roads to mud, as only a small percentage of roads are paved in Ukraine (See Section 3 & 4).
Ukrainian and Russian officials have announced Russia beginning the next phase of their invasion from 19th April. This includes heavy bombardment while simultaneously relocating troops and logistics to the east, in preparation for a full scale offensive.
There are several other indicators leading us to conclude that Russia will seek some kind of progression by Easter (April 24th for the Orthodox Church).
The siege of Mariupol is almost over. Once this city comes under Russian control, all the connecting Eastern provinces will be secured and the coastline of the Sea of Azov will be cut off from Ukraine.
Once Russian troops are surrounding Kyiv from around 15 miles, artillery will be in range and have the ability to be pointed toward the city center. Putting Russia in a strong position for negotiating a resolution, hopefully without the need to destroy the capital.
Russian oil and gas sales to Europe are to be paid in Rubles from the 1st April. Some European leaders are disputing the legality of breaking the terms of contract, although Russia could surely make the same claim in light of sanctions. Although Russia has left a loophole to still accept EUR & USD, Russia has the strongest negotiating power while Europe is still feeling the cold and the annual dip of oil prices in May arrive.
The haste that Russian forces are now moving at to seemingly meet a deadline.
Russian officials and media gathering nearer to the city of Mariupol in anticipation of declaring victory.
An announcement by April 24th would give Russian troops 15 days to make preparations and mobilize Moscow in time for Victory Day.
The military pushes will enable political and economic pushes to be effective. With oil and gas exports accounting for 25% of Russian GDP, it would be advantageous for the operation to not become prolonged. We expect a peace agreement to be reached with terms that enable Putin to declare some form of victory, such as:
• Eastern region of Donbas and the Sea of Azov become affiliated with Russia
• Ukraine to maintain a neutral status, no EU, no NATO.
• Bioweapon facilities to be shutdown with Russian supervision.
• Some reshuffling in Ukraine government and military.
SECTION 3: RETRIBUTION & VICTORY
Here is an educated guess - Russia will declare victory on May 9th.
The resolution to this war will be a monumental to old Soviet glory. It will mark the symbolic end to one of the greatest deceptions by the East.
Through decades of ideological subversions that the deceptions of Russia and China are now physically/kinetically showing through their alliance.
US intelligence officers have reported Russia’s strategy for war in Ukraine has been revised. With a target date of early May being set for achieving a victory based on controlling Donbas and the eastern areas of Ukraine.
A US official who intercepted the information highlighted the focus of Putin to declare victory to coincide with May 9th, Russia’s Victory Day.
The Red Square in front of the kremlin is where the annual celebration of Russian victory of Nazi forces in WWII is held.
I venture to say we are now living in a post ‘active measures’ world as defined by the COVID pandemic:
During the 1980s, KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov warned the United States of disinformation, stating that 85% of the efforts of the KGB was focused on active ideological subversion measures.
Here are his claims on the timeline, mirroring the steps for “active measure” tactics. Steps that have been going on for decades, since the cold war.
1) 15 – 20 years to demoralize a nation, exposing a generation to Soviet-centered ideas
2) 2-5 years of economic and societal destabilization
3) 6-week crises (COVID hysteria of 1H20)
4) Normalization period
And now, it has evolved. It is no longer communist-centric, but instead autocratic-centric.
Read more about the background on Russia’s approach from our June 2019 piece: Russia's Great Wall of Deception: 'Zapad' Fire
May 9th in Russia marks Victory Day, the commemoration of the end of WWII, when German powers surrendered. In other countries, May 8th is recognized as VE day (Victory in Europe), due to the time zone difference. In 1965, May 9th became a national holiday in Russia. Displays of military strength are still shown annually on this date in Moscow.
After playing a significant role in the defeat of the Nazis, it would be a fitting target date for the first troops to start returning home and celebrate the victory of the current war against alleged Nazis.
The oligarch accused of financing the Ukraine’s president and his henchmen in power are the Nazis that Putin is referring to. Russia is pushing the neo-Nazis in Ukraine narrative with annual reminders of how Victory Day often has abuse and humiliation from the neo-Nazis targeting participants and veterans.
Just as the Nazis have served as a useful enemy to the Russian military, the Russians have served as a useful enemy for the US democrats to blame domestic problems on.
SECTION 4: THE FINAL ACT - INTO 2023
Mid Term Center Stage
Momentum will begin to rise in beaten down tech stocks going into Q422. With a keen focus towards election security and tampering. We encourage readers to focus on the alignment that the DNC has with the Zelenskyy government.
The Ukraine has been an invaluable piece for the DNC to secure wins, such as allegations of collusion and the impeachment of Trump in relation to the Ukrainian linked cyber security company Crowdstrike.
One of the key talking points of the midterms will be the energy crisis. Without the political will to bring US energy online, international partners will prove key in doing the dirty work to fulfil the demand for 'dirty energy'. One such partner could be Turkey in coming years.
New Oil Sources - The Rise of Turkey
In 2023 Turkey’s centenary is marked by the cessation of the Treaty of Lausanne. An agreement made with the capitulation of the Ottoman Empire, one of the world’s greatest powers. The treaty’s 100 year implementation comes to an end, allowing Turkey to pursue several interests that were previously restricted. This includes bringing its own oil and gas infrastructure online, like the Sakarya gas field and Southern Gas Corridor.
Erdogan is promising a revolutionary new future from 2023, by supplying energy to Europe. As a member of NATO this is not good news for Russia. The only other country in the same geographical position of connecting Asia and Europe. Turkey also has a bid for accession to the European Union in progress.
Overall, the Black Sea is an anoxic environment and home to the world’s highest concentration of natural gases. By taking the Sea of Azov, Russia will further increase Russia’s stake in the special economic zone after already taking Georgia and Crimea. It will be advantageous for Russia to make headway with development and extraction of energy resources before Turkey is able to make progress there.
SECTION 5: COLLECTING THE PRIZES OF WAR
A prize of war is a piece of enemy property or land seized by a belligerent party during or after a war or battle, typically at sea. This term was used nearly exclusively in terms of captured ships during the 18th and 19th centuries. Current international treaties provide for the retention of personal property by captured soldiers as well as issues of personal equipment in their possession when captured.
Although it will take time for diplomatic and trade discrepancies to be resolved once the conflict is over, the market will move in real time. In anticipation of a military resolution, here we break down the stock picks as the prizes of war.
In June 2021, we made a price prediction for oil. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, we have crossed that threshold and sustained prices. The Inversion of Energy - Oil to $100
Sanctions on Russia have created short term supply concerns. But the wider implications for global economic health are not good. It’s time to exit 80% of any oil positions. Possibly transferring to big oil companies while they lag, then futures to ride the descent.
If supply becomes invisible, is it still supply?
Although Russia has been cut from the SWIFT system, it will take value out of the petrodollar system. The more that is exchanged through SWIFT, the more centralized power and control is. Having illiquid oil outside of SWIFT and the petrodollar system isn’t beneficial for the West. Doing so only causes more transactions and value to pass through the CHIPS and SPFS systems, ultimately creating a challenger to SWIFT.
1: LONG COMMODITIES, latest up-to May 9th
2: LONG S&P 500 INDEX On May 9th (invert sell in May go away)
Once stability is reached, we’ll be back to the business of building the Tower of Babel with 1s & 0s. It’s currently an opportunity to long tech stocks, before prices climb to break new highs of 5000. Centralization to the Omega point.
3: LONG OVERSOLD TECH STOCKS (-50% from recent highs) On May 9th
Possibilities to watch:
4: BEGIN SHORTING COMMODITY FUTURES From April 24th (June Contract)
5: LONG CANADIAN DOLLAR (Combating Inflation) SHORT JAPANESE YEN (Import Energy with Deflation)
The Bank of Canada increased interest rates by 0.25% (2nd March), rising to 0.5%. With predictions targeting 1.25% by the end of the year. We have seen strong economic growth from the net oil exporter, CAD having an 80% correlation to oil prices.
The Bank of Japan will not even consider raising rates from -0.1% (18th March meeting), despite (the wrong kind of) inflation surfacing in the last year, it’s still short of the 2% target. Japan has seen very modest growth on paper, but bearing in mind the rates and amount of stimulus, it’s stagnant at best and deflationary in reality. As a net importer of energy and declining currency, JPY is inverse to oil.
6: LONG CROWDSTRIKE (CRWD) up-to Nov 8 2022 (the Democratically Controlled Midterm Elections)
7. LONG $LNG
WAR IS OVER
We have seen many pleas for Western intervention from Ukraine, with supporting evidence that may or may not be reliable. After implementing the toughest sanctions on record and getting involved in every indirect way possible, NATO are not coming to save the day.
There is still the possibility of a false flag event to trigger WWIII, but this could blow up with counter intelligence to prove the falsity. Which wise leaders would want to call Putin’s bluff?
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