America is Naive
Most people on Wall Street are naive.
This is the byproduct of entitlement, excess, and numbness.
How can an Ivy League WASP understand human nature on a visceral level?
In what context have they truly experienced human nature at its core? When you haven’t been a journeyman both physically and mentally, you haven’t truly grown or gone anywhere.
I’ve been molded by the ice-cold intensity of full-contact ice hockey and fought in the jungles of my own Vietnam War.
This creates a massive opportunity…
Until only weeks ago, you had armchair analysts debating oil inventory levels as geopolitical tensions ramp up, which can only be fueled—literally and figuratively—by oil.
They were wrong because they are still naive about OPEC.
Americans are naive.
You might be able to control your actions -globally, but what you disregard are actions that could lead to escalation.
Consider if someone enters your private property; in many states, you have the right to escalate e.g. terrorism was used as an excuse for the Afghan war.
Meaning, any action allows the opposition to escalate to a multi-state war. How can you subtly increase global entropy leading up to the election without explicitly stating that you’re doing so?
Reader, it should be abundantly clear to you what is happening.
The powers that be want us in this state of entropy to gain more centralized power in the future.
To Catch A Falling Stock
This leads me to an email I just wrote to a fund manager.
By the way, Boeing is on my radar, as is aerospace for sure.
When Biden speaks this week, it will come with a stimulus package (directly or indirectly) for the military and defense sector. This is the sentiment pivot for Boeing, which is what I tried to ask Cramer about.There are various ways to quantify this, but I can tell you that I’ve been game-theorizing the predicament that puts the White House in 200 days from now.
The incumbent must push us to the brink - which is an indication of concession relative to sentiment of the American voter.
If the incumbent wins, there’s less chaos.
If the 45th comes in, there’s more chaos to untangle.
A lot of interesting implications.
Boeing, plagued by longstanding safety concerns, faces a tumultuous period with plummeting share prices, exacerbated by poor management decisions, and now finds itself under investigation by the US Senate.
But they are too big to be nailed.
The next two weeks looks like the interim bottom. An escalation in war provocations with Iran provides the incumbent president with the perfect opportunity to intervene. A major aerospace producer tied up in legal investigations is a threat to national defense.
So whether it’s military contracts or direct stimulus, we can expect an announcement in the coming week about a shot in the arm for Boeing. Going into the projected biggest tourism spend since Covid.
Boeing Segment Breakdown
(1) Commercial Airplanes
(2) Defense, Space and Security
(3) Global Services
Till next time…